Ethiopians wait and worry over election results

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia In this high-altitude capital, smells of the city linger, especially the rich aromas that pour out of coffeehouses, arousing the senses of passers-by. Inside Tomoca's Coffee House, off Churchill Road, men nursed the brew in their small mugs, talking quietly of the leading topic in Addis Ababa: the elections held May 15. The National Elections Board will not officially announce the winners until Wednesday. "There won't be any war from this election," said Ahmed Nuru, 45, who trades in jewels. "It will be peaceful. The counting takes time. We are a backward country. The ballots are transported in some places by donkey and camel. What do you expect?" But many worry that the announcement of official results might set off huge demonstrations in Addis Ababa and other cities. Both the governing party and the main opposition coalitions have claimed victory. "We are very afraid," said Minetslnot Endabe, 17, a goat seller who watches over his five animals during the day and goes to school at night. "We want peace, peace only, because if there is a fight for power, it becomes my problem. We could lose everything." The Ethiopian elections have been a historic event for this country of 74 million people, the vast majority of whom live in distant rural communities. The governing party, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, opened up state media for the first time to allow opposition parties to present their platforms. Party leaders and opposition politicians debated each other more than a dozen times, live on television. Turnout on May 15 was huge: More than 90 percent of the estimated 26 million voters cast ballots; some waited more than 10 hours to vote. Results have trickled out from the elections board. Last weekend, the board released provisional results showing the governing party winning 283 constituencies so far, which would give it a majority in the 547-seat Parliament. The board said the main opposition party, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy, had won 110 seats. But the opposition has filed complaints alleging fraud or irregularities in 139 constituencies, throwing the result into question. Some international observers strongly criticized the governing party for claiming victory only a day after the elections. Last week, election observers from the European Union questioned the delay in releasing tallies, especially since results had been announced on election night at many polling stations. The board's delays, said the EU team, "risk increasing the scope for manipulation and consequently putting in doubt public confidence in the process." "Ethiopia is now at a crossroads," said Tamrat Giorgis, managing editor of the Fortune newspaper, an independent English-language weekly. "There's a very good chance the country could take a more democratic path and uphold the rule of law, and there's a very good chance it could slide back. There's never been an election like this before; there's never been this much interest." Giorgis said the election had created tension, excitement, and surprising results. "We have a ruling party that wasn't prepared to lose," he said, "and an opposition party that wasn't prepared to win." The opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy won all 23 Parliament seats in the capital, Addis Ababa, according to the elections board; the governing party has conceded the seats. In the last election, five years ago, the opposition had just 12 seats in Parliament. Analysts say the opposition parties benefited in the election in May mainly from the unhappiness with the governing party's inability to deliver basic services and lift people out of poverty. If the governing party peacefully hands over the control of Addis Ababa, Giorgis said, that alone will be unprecedented in Ethiopia. "It would be the first power transfer without violence in the history of the country," he said. At the University of Addis Ababa, a stronghold for the opposition, several students expressed unhappiness about the vote count. "We don't know whom to believe," said Fasil Tsezaye, 29, who is studying public health issues. "I can't believe the results being reported by the elections board. In Addis, they could not change the vote of the people, but in the rural areas, they can." Tsezaye and several others said that if the electoral commission announced the ruling party was victorious, opponents would demonstrate on the streets. "I'm worried the country will split along ethnic lines," Tsezaye said. That, too, is the concern of the goat sellers, who charge $17 for thin goats, double that for fat ones. Mudelini Abduselam, 35, owner of six goats, said he and the others have already mapped out what they would do in case of rioting. "I'm going to take care of myself and run away." "Only if there's time, will I do something about the goats," he said.